Brent Returns to $100 as Regional Exports Plunge 82%

Brent crude oil closed Thursday (23) in London at $100.68, up 7% ($7.04), reaching its highest level since May. The immediate trigger was the Houthi attack on two Saudi tankers – Encelia and Layla – in the Red Sea, on the 12th consecutive night of US airstrikes on Iran.

But what is actually driving the rally is not the incident itself. It is a much deeper logistical collapse: regional oil exports plummeted 82% in the first half, from 18.8 million barrels per day and 370 cargoes to just 3.4 million barrels per day and 71 cargoes, according to a Wood Mackenzie calculation published by Forbes.

Triple-digit oil is no longer a risk scenario – it has become the screen price of the international market. And that creates a double, contradictory effect on Brazil’s economy.

The Logistical Bottleneck Pushing Prices Up

The drastic reduction in Middle Eastern shipments acts as a chokehold on global supply. When cargoes disappear from the map, the price rises even if production still exists – it is the inability to move the oil that tightens the market.

The sequence of hostilities among Houthis, Iran, and the United States has turned the Red Sea into an increasingly dangerous route. Attacks on vessels are not new, but the persistence of military actions, now intensified, has led shipowners and traders to avoid the region, redirecting cargoes or simply stopping shipments.

Wood Mackenzie’s numbers show the scale of the gap: from nearly 19 million barrels per day exported at the start of the year, only about 3.4 million remain. Global supply lost a volume equivalent to more than three times Brazil’s daily consumption.

In the same session earlier in the day, Brent was already trading at $98.30 (+4.50%) and WTI at $90.14 (+3.81%), according to InfoMoney. By the end of the day, WTI rose 6.37% to $92.36, confirming the move was not isolated.

Petrobras Gains, Consumers Feel the Pain

For Petrobras, a more expensive barrel means higher revenue and stronger cash generation. Preferred shares (PETR4) closed Thursday’s trading session up 0.87%, at R$42.95, reflecting the perception that the company directly benefits from the international price rally.

The gain, however, is not evenly distributed. While shareholders celebrate, Brazilian consumers face the risk of pass-through to fuel prices. The state-owned company’s pricing policy, tied to international benchmarks, turns the external shock into pressure at the pump for gasoline and diesel.

With Brent above $100 and the commercial dollar at R$5.08 (+0.33%), import parity rises significantly, making derivatives more expensive – directly impacting transportation costs and the production chain.

The Risk for Inflation and Interest Rates

The impact of expensive oil on inflation is a classic, fast-moving channel. Gasoline and diesel account for a significant share of the IPCA, the official price index, which rose only 0.16% in June (the latest available data). A potential need to adjust fuel prices could interrupt that benign trajectory.

The central bank maintains the Selic rate at 14.25% per year, still monitoring inflation cores. A persistent oil price increase adds further pressure to the outlook because it raises freight costs, food (transportation), and industrial inputs – feeding a supply-side inflation that monetary policy cannot directly combat, but which forces the authority to act if it contaminates expectations.

The ambiguity is complete: the oil rally swells the revenues of Brazil’s largest company while eroding household purchasing power and adding fuel to inflation at a time when the country is still trying to consolidate price deceleration.

The barrel above $100 has returned to the screen in a context where geopolitics has squeezed supply far more intensely than the bombings suggest. As long as Middle Eastern logistics remain blocked and attacks on vessels continue, oil will likely trade at elevated levels, keeping Brazil in this uncomfortable balance between revenue and inflation.